New York winter forecast 2026-27: NOAA releases seasonal outlook
Oct. 7, 2026, 5:24 am ET
A warmer-than-normal winter may be ahead for New York, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The Weather Service’s seasonal outlook through March 2027 shows New York leaning toward above-normal temperatures. AccuWeather meteorologists have not yet issued their long-range winter forecast, but they have predicted an unusually warm start to fall in New York.
Two longtime weather almanacs have also released their winter predictions for New York, with one offering a forecast that differs significantly from the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service winter predictions for New York
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest seasonal outlook indicates an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across New York through March 2027.
The outlook shows New York’s chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures ranging from 50% to 60%, with above-normal temperatures also favored across much of the Northeast.
For precipitation, the Weather Service forecasts equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation across western New York and parts of central and northern New York.
Eastern New York, including parts of the Adirondacks, Catskills, Hudson Valley and the New York City area, has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation, ranging from 33% to 50%, according to the outlook.
For the three-month period through the end of 2026, the Weather Service forecasts equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation across New York and much of the Northeast.
Farmers’ Almanac winter predictions for New York
The Farmers’ Almanac describes the upcoming winter as one of its “most complicated winter patterns.”
The publication is calling for a “tricky” and unpredictable mix of rain, sleet, ice and heavy, wet snow across the Northeast.
Storm tracks could play a major role in what falls across different parts of New York. Small changes in a storm’s path could mean rain in one area while another sees sleet, freezing rain or accumulating snow.
Inland areas of the Northeast could see several rounds of heavy, wet snow, particularly in January and February, according to the Almanac.
The Almanac advises residents to be prepared for forecasts to change quickly as storms approach.
Old Farmer’s Almanac winter predictions for New York
The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast varies depending on where you live in New York. Here’s the regional breakdown:
Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse: Lower Lakes Region
Forecast: Warmer than normal with above-normal precipitation
Temperatures: Above normal
Snowfall: Near to below normal
Utica, Albany, Adirondacks: Northeast Region
Forecast: Conditions will vary by location, with warmer temperatures and less snow in the north and cooler temperatures and more snow in the south.
Temperatures: Above normal in the north; below normal in the south
Snowfall: Below normal in the north; above normal in the south
Elmira, Binghamton, Ithaca: Appalachian Region
Forecast: Cooler and snowier conditions are expected.
Temperatures: Below normal
Snowfall: Above normal
New York City, Long Island: Atlantic Corridor Region
Forecast: Warmer and slightly less snowy conditions are expected.
Temperatures: Above normal
Snowfall: Slightly below normal
When is the first day of winter?
The winter solstice, which marks the start of astronomical winter in the United States, is Dec. 21. This year, the solstice falls on a Monday.
When does winter end?
Winter ends March 20, 2027, when the spring equinox occurs.
Contributing: USA TODAY Network
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